Thursday, 24 January 2013

My glass half full.

David Cameron offers an in/out referendum on EU membership in 2017 if we re-elect him in 2015.

"Now is the time for the British people to have their say."

Well let's have it now then.

Actually there are technical reasons why we can't have a referendum this side of the election - besides, the LibDems would block it.

Had David Cameron offered us an in/out referendum in his manifesto at the last election then the LibDems wouldn't even feature on the political landscape. Mr Cameron is a federalist and always will be. He has reneged on promises before. His chances of winning the next general election are slim and so this offer is pretty hollow and costless - as cheap as an empty conserve jar and the offering of non-existent jam to-morrow.

There will be no 'out' - the EU ratchet will continue to tighten. Mass immigration from Bulgaria and Romania will increase the sceptic support (but will also increase the number of Europhile voter base too.) The pro EU lobby is richer, more powerful and vested than it was in 1972.

Well done Nigel Farage, his party UKIP and the Tory Right for forcing the issue. Without this David Cameron would continue with EU integration unabated.

13 comments:

Blue Eyes said...

"Had David Cameron offered us an in/out referendum in his manifesto at the last election then the LibDems wouldn't even feature on the political landscape."

Sorry, have to call BS on that one. The EU is not the major swing vote issue you like to think it is. Cameron didn't win the election because the Tory brand is still toxic in large sections of the electorate and because lots of people bought the "taking money out of the economy" crap from Brown. People voted LD in decent numbers because people wanted to believe there was some form of nice way to fix the economy.

"He has reneged on promises before. "

On the EU? Care to give us an example? Or do you mean the non-existent promise that people think they remember to hold a referendum after the Lisbon Treaty had come into effect?

UKIP have done nothing that Tory MPs and activists have been arguing about for ages. Still, if Nigel thinks he's more influential than he really is that can only make him do more and more bonkers stuff to discredit himself before the election.

Electro-Kevin said...

If the EU isn't the swing vote issue I like to think it is then pray tell. Why the speech and why the headline news coverage ?

What UKIP have done is provide the alternative tick-box that the party-within-a-party Tory activists cannot offer. That is a serious threat to David Cameron and it has given power to the Redwoods - though they would still poo-poo the UKIP oddballs.

UKIP offers an alternative that is not extremist (unlike the BNP) It doesn't need to fight to win or place MPs - it simply needs to fight to force an issue to the fore. Therefore Farage's candidates need not be of particularly high quality to garner election changing swings.

His party will appeal the the moderate people of this country like me (see graph which is inset on blog page right.) who wish to protest but who would never vote BNP and would consider a spoiled ballot paper wasted.

The disaffection among voters is well recorded. Massive losses to Tory party membership and votership (as with all parties) There is obvious disenfranchisement in the country but also a gap in the public perception between cause and effect - this is chiefly because of BBC bias and cross party misinformation.

Cameron's position on Lisbon was at best a false elevation of hopes. He has backtracked on other promises - chiefly his bonfire of the quangos and promise to cut back spending. The deficit reduction of 25% quoted in his broadcast this evening still constitutes increasing debt albeit slowed.

If there were fair and even broadcast coverage (and Eurosceptic airtime) then the public would be more concerned about the EU and causation.

Among other things QE, inflation, low interest rates, bank forbearance, continued increases in the national debt have gone some way (rigthly or wrongly) to cushioning the public from real hardships and the need for proper scrutiny of costs, and the effects, of EU constraints on our political, legal and economic autonomy.

Nigel Farage may well do 'bonkers' stuff. It's highly entertaining to watch. (A rare spot of entertainment in the deathly dull EU)and in a way that no Europhile could do. Poking fun at a grey, po faced and arrogant establishment elite. The potent reverse of the Left wing satire of the Thatcher era in fact.

That's a worry for Mr Cameron too as it draws the public attention to the EU chambers for all the 'wrong' reasons.

It has played no small part in forcing him to address this issue.

Electro-Kevin said...

Another reneged promise was repeal of the Human Rights Act (if I recall.)

Ranter said...

E-K I agree. If ANY political party had campaigned on withdrawal from the EU, an end to unfettered immigration from anywhere and a repeal of the human rights act (for starters) they would have won the last election like never before. Whilst politicians pander to minority interests (and not just minority ethnic interests) and fail to deal with what the great silent majority actually want this apathy for politics will continue. The reaction to Cameron seems to be 'we'll believe it when we see it' no one trusts the small mouthed twat. That Milliband really is a cnut too and as for Cleggy....who?

beast of law and order said...

As usual I agree with you Kev
Cameron is nothing more than a posh salesman and upmarket spiv (A bit like myself)
Sadly I do not run the country,if I did it would be a flat rate tax of 1P in the £ only in time of war
No gun laws or speed limits, no benefits for sitting about on ones arse, no abortion, the death penalty for murder or child molestation, deportation of all Roma, flogging for theft and large breasted black women available to all
This would be a vote winner

Blue Eyes said...

"This would be a vote winner"

And yet strangely nobody running for election seems to propose it. It must be a CONSPIRACY!

The Lakelander said...

It looks like Beast and Blue Eyes have managed to travel forwards in time....it's still the 24th of January!

Perhaps the timezone on your blog needs to be re-set, E-K?

Blue Eyes said...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2013/01/economistipsos-mori-issues-index

Electro-Kevin said...

Blue - A conspiracy. Well you said it not me.

I think it works along the lines that the ruling class recruits like-minded thinkers to its candidature and then lo ... all the candidates are saying and thinking the same things when they are appointed.

Imagine how successful a party would be if it offered the electorate life-means-life prison sentencing or a moratorium on mass immigration.

That they ignore such obvious vote winners means that there is, indeed, a conspiracy.

Electro-Kevin said...

Thanks for the link btw.

Beast, Ranter, Lakelander. Thanks for your comments.(well... sort of in the case of Beasty)

Electro-Kevin said...

Blue - The Economist link.

The economy is a broad subject. Many of the problems within it are linked closely to others.

ie the NHS and welfarism affect the economy adversely and greater than most issues. Mass immigration affects both of those too.

Asking the public to identify one overriding issue is rather pointless.

Blue Eyes said...

EK you are completely right, the EU is an important factor in the economy, welfare, public services. All I am saying is that it doesn't matter whether you are right or wrong if the vast majority of voters don't care enough to think about it.

Electro-Kevin said...

If they vote to stay in then we will shut up about it.

Expecting the Europhiles to play it dirty though.

The people must have a say on a matter of such importance.